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mardi 24 juin 2014

The famous Hessdalen 2007 picture and video: An alternative Hypothesis is proposed...

We all are naturally inclined to detect patterns and sometimes our expectations and cultural background drive us to locate a signal against a background of noise despite it is a false alarm. This will lead to the detection of subjectively meaningful signals and patterns in an environment even when none really exist. Even a completely random stimulus will be seen as having detectable meaningful information. To avoid such bias, the best tools we have at our disposal are science and the scientific method. These tools help us move past our bias and see what really is a signal and what is really just meaningless noise. Unfortunately, people get attached to their perceived patterns in the noise. (Adapted from the Signal Detection Theory).

A short video presenting the phenomenon recorded that evening of 2007 EMBLA.
If the video, does not work: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Btptc0wyeQI



The famous 2007 picture with spectra.


This two co-authored work focuses on the famous Hessdalen 2007 picture with spectra and its associated video and proposes an alternative hypothesis. 
Again and like the previous article concerning Hessdalen pictures in this blog, the goal of this paper is not to claim there is not an UAP phenomenon in the Hessdalen Valley, but in order to avoid past or future possible false-alarms.
I'm glad to have participated to this work, between two co-authors who probably don't share exactly the same points of view and reflexions concerning UAP or UFO in general, but agreeing I think that the work in order to avoid possible false-alarms is a very important step. 
It points that works between different people having probably not the same general point of view regarding a phenomenon may produce interesting leads and/or hypotheses for a case, a picture, a video and so on.

The link to download the paper (pdf) is the following one (but the rezolution of the figures is not very good):
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_PO-khf8n2dSGdVU3Vtd2ozRFE/edit

I wish you a nice reading and of course we are open to feed-backs, critics, suggestions and so on.




False Alarm under the Signal Detection Theory.



lundi 2 juin 2014

The Miracle of Fatima: Photographic Proof? UFO Event? Some French and English skeptic Sources...

Currently as a Draft
Before the astonished eyes of the crowd, whose aspect was biblical as they stood bare-headed, eagerly searching the sky, the sun trembled, made sudden incredible movements outside all cosmic laws — the sun 'danced' according to the typical expression of the people. Avelino de Almeida quoted by De Marchi, John (1952) in The Immaculate Heart, The True Story of Our Lady of Fatima.
 As if like a bolt from the blue, the clouds were wrenched apart, and the sun at its zenith appeared in all its splendor. It began to revolve vertiginously on its axis, like the most magnificent firewheel that could be imagined, taking on all the colors of the rainbow and sending forth multicolored flashes of light, producing the most astounding effect. This sublime and incomparable spectacle, which was repeated three distinct times, lasted for about ten minutes. The immense multitude, overcome by the evidence of such a tremendous prodigy, threw themselves on their knees. Dr. Manuel Formigão,  professor at the seminary at Santarém and priest, quoted by De Marchi, Ibid.
 [...] la raison conduit à voir, dans la danse du soleil, la signature d'un message extraterrestre. Gilles Pinon (2002), in Fatima, un OVNI pas comme les autres ?
La conclusion s'impose : le soleil de Fatima est un ovni interposé à 10 km sous les nuages entre le Soleil et la Cova de Iria. Il devient, après 50 ans de préparation, la preuve officielle qu'attendent les sceptiques. Artéfact physique ostentatoire "impossible" pris provisoirement en charge par l'Église, Fatima est un signal extraterrestre aussi probant qu'un débarquement officiel, la plus grande opération de communication de tous les temps, mais sans le risque d'ethnocide. http://www.ufocom.eu/pages/v_fr/m_presse/Notes_lecture/Pinon.htm

Versus 
Most likely, there was a combination of factors, including optical effects and meteorological phenomena, such as the sun being seen through thin clouds, causing it to appear as a silver disc. Joe Nickell (2009).
On pourrait donc presque dire qu'une des photos* prises ce jour-là constitue l'élément essentiel de l'explication du pseudo-miracle : certains regardèrent avec précaution un soleil éblouissant et ne virent rien d'anormal, tandis que d'autres regardèrent sans prendre la moindre précaution, furent éblouis et décrivirent les plus extraordinaires choses. Marc Hallet in Les Apparitions de la Vierge et la Critique Historique.
* The photo pointed by Marc Hallet: One could therefore says that one the photos taken that day is a key element of the explanation of the pseudo-miracle: some looked protecting their eyes at the bright sunlight and saw nothing unusual, while others looked without taking any precaution, were dazzled and described the most extraordinary things.



One of the original 1917 pictures & a post-event Artwork.


The Miracle of the Sun in Fatima in 1917 have produced an important amount of literature. 

Of course, some ufologists have reconstructed and have "jumped" to the event in order it matches their UFO cognitive filter, like they do concerning Archeology, Celestial Wonders, Art Paintings, the 1899/97 Airships wave, etc. One book, forworded by famous Ufologist Jacques Vallée is for example the following one:

One the coverts of Fernandes & D'Armada book.
In French, there is for example a famous book looking to the event as the product of Aliens/UFO and titled Le Miracle De Fatima - La plus grande Opération de Communication extraterrestre des Temps modernes, by Gilles Pinon.
One the coverts of Gilles Pinon's book.

One episode of the Fatima Saga reached the USA, when in 1951, LIFE Magazine carried sensational news about : The Vatican had released photographs as proof of it, evidence of a "rigorously authentic origin."

The LIFE Magazine article.

How to filter what is fact and what is fiction regarding this event? Are these pictures "rigorously authentic"? Or the Fatima Miracle is a sort of retrospective falsification and a "modern myth"?

In december 2013, an American investigator released two pieces at his blog where the reader could find several sources (links) that shed light on this matter... Parts of the two articles are devoted on the pictures themselves, others (in French) adress the case in an Historical critic and point of view...

Part Two: Miracle of Fatima: Photographic Proof Part II

A YT video where the "false" pictures appear.

Direct access (French source): http://www.histoireebook.com/index.php?post/Hallet-Marc-Les-apparitions-de-la-Vierge-et-la-critique-historique

There also are such readings:
The Real Secrets of Fatima, by Joe Nickell.

What happened at Fatima in 1917? A complex combination of mass and individual conventional factors, from optical phenomenom to wishful thinking, and retrospective falsifications? A real miracle? An alien spacecraft appearing in Portugal? Something other? Everyone is free to choose...